* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 41 48 52 51 41 31 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 41 48 52 51 41 31 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 31 34 36 36 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 33 30 22 11 14 12 19 26 56 32 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 1 2 4 -1 0 -2 0 -8 6 1 SHEAR DIR 250 248 251 250 253 258 231 206 211 286 359 348 324 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 26.7 26.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.2 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 133 133 135 122 115 106 104 101 100 97 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 122 123 125 113 105 96 94 91 89 85 87 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -57.0 -57.9 -58.1 -58.6 -58.6 -58.8 -58.4 -58.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 53 51 49 50 51 53 48 48 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 16 19 20 17 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 9 1 0 1 22 31 40 0 -35 -69 -108 200 MB DIV 52 69 29 1 22 86 81 53 21 -66 -62 -15 18 700-850 TADV 10 8 4 10 10 11 13 10 18 0 -3 -5 21 LAND (KM) 1564 1599 1664 1758 1864 2138 2425 2296 1928 1604 1409 1256 956 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.9 22.8 24.9 27.8 30.9 33.1 34.2 35.4 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 48.9 48.3 47.5 46.7 44.9 43.2 42.6 43.9 46.8 50.3 52.8 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 10 11 13 13 16 17 16 14 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 14 11 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -16. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 5. 8. 9. 6. 1. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 16. 23. 27. 26. 16. 6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.9 49.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 32 41 48 52 51 41 31 23 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 38 45 49 48 38 28 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 34 41 45 44 34 24 16 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 27 34 38 37 27 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT