* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 39 44 49 54 56 61 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 10 6 7 9 11 8 4 5 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 1 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 316 301 307 331 331 348 26 28 47 106 210 191 224 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.6 31.4 31.4 30.6 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 152 156 157 161 164 170 170 170 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 131 134 134 138 141 148 156 170 169 152 141 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 63 62 59 55 55 55 55 54 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 4 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -14 -25 -28 -28 -34 -45 -54 -41 -36 -28 17 16 200 MB DIV 16 21 8 1 14 -6 0 3 -6 11 18 31 32 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 1 3 -7 -1 -6 -1 0 0 -6 -1 LAND (KM) -3 -72 -146 -219 -302 -447 -583 -438 -286 -137 -42 -6 -22 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.4 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.1 98.8 99.5 100.3 101.8 103.4 104.8 106.5 108.0 109.5 110.5 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 9 9 9 9 23 12 19 17 41 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -8. -10. -10. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 29. 31. 36. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.9 97.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 16.2% 13.3% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 17.8% 10.9% 4.7% 2.4% 9.9% 8.3% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% Consensus: 2.2% 11.5% 8.1% 4.8% 0.8% 3.3% 5.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT