* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 35 42 46 50 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 340 338 310 323 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 157 152 150 153 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 134 130 130 133 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -11 -11 -24 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 10 22 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 4 1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 102 51 1 -59 -119 -316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 27 21 30 10 9 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 96.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.4% 14.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 10.1% 5.1% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% 3.7% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 9.7% 6.6% 3.7% 0.2% 1.0% 4.5% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT