* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 38 45 48 51 53 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 8 7 11 8 12 11 17 13 22 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 335 357 5 341 1 325 328 307 338 345 8 12 SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 29.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 165 151 154 156 157 156 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 159 164 163 161 147 131 133 132 129 128 130 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 12 10 13 11 13 10 13 10 14 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 71 68 69 68 67 64 61 54 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 1 7 -2 -12 -24 -36 -43 -30 -12 -1 -8 200 MB DIV 40 15 -2 25 22 -8 13 -7 10 3 -11 3 2 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 4 5 0 6 2 5 0 0 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 347 385 445 362 280 101 -36 -184 -307 -399 -443 -510 -603 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.7 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.5 93.2 93.9 94.6 96.2 97.7 99.2 100.3 101.1 101.5 102.2 103.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 9 8 8 5 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 88 77 48 39 76 41 37 9 9 9 9 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 92.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.42 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.95 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.0% 15.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 19.8% 11.8% 7.1% 3.5% 11.0% 16.4% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.6% Consensus: 3.0% 13.5% 9.3% 6.0% 1.2% 3.7% 9.1% 8.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT