* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 26 27 29 35 41 45 48 50 55 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 26 27 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 17 17 10 10 10 14 14 15 15 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -2 -5 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 348 328 335 355 14 350 3 339 339 333 3 350 27 SST (C) 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 29.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 170 167 154 159 162 162 163 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 160 164 165 161 148 136 139 139 137 137 146 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 71 71 68 70 68 66 66 64 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 3 0 6 -13 -23 -43 -38 -35 -36 -26 -31 200 MB DIV 38 31 15 3 19 3 10 -1 0 -3 -5 0 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 6 -1 7 -3 8 -2 1 -8 0 LAND (KM) 333 388 440 367 275 119 -78 -225 -366 -478 -577 -462 -321 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.4 93.1 94.0 94.8 96.2 98.0 99.6 101.1 102.2 103.2 104.3 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 89 75 55 56 90 57 33 9 9 17 36 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 5. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 30. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 91.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.46 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.96 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.9% 13.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 15.4% 7.9% 5.6% 3.3% 15.3% 20.7% 32.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 7.8% Consensus: 2.7% 11.0% 7.1% 4.8% 1.1% 5.2% 10.1% 13.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 25 26 27 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 25 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT