* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 37 44 50 54 57 63 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 10 10 16 16 4 13 6 9 5 15 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 347 347 319 329 352 15 13 18 356 323 357 18 22 SST (C) 30.1 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.3 29.8 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 170 169 165 159 164 166 165 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 159 163 164 164 153 146 139 143 142 139 143 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 12 10 13 11 14 11 14 11 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70 67 67 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 20 33 28 17 15 -11 -21 -36 -36 -25 -25 -18 200 MB DIV 24 21 28 26 6 35 -14 21 -25 6 -7 -11 -14 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -2 2 -1 3 3 3 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 304 364 409 419 337 204 70 -80 -235 -348 -428 -507 -453 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.3 93.0 93.7 94.5 95.8 97.1 98.4 99.8 100.8 101.7 102.5 103.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 87 84 71 73 85 44 35 31 10 9 11 38 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 5. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 38. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 91.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.51 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.95 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.6% 12.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.9% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 4.0% 10.5% 29.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.2% Consensus: 2.2% 8.1% 5.4% 3.3% 0.3% 1.4% 6.7% 12.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 30 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 29 36 32 28 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 26 33 29 25 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 23 19 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT