* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 38 45 50 53 55 58 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 38 45 42 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 36 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 5 5 11 9 8 6 11 11 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 327 356 17 297 315 37 358 5 321 331 315 358 352 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.8 30.4 29.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 162 166 170 171 171 162 148 154 154 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 143 147 155 167 157 142 128 131 129 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 69 67 70 67 69 64 64 60 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 18 18 0 4 -12 -18 -37 -38 -33 -25 -9 200 MB DIV 34 18 28 24 23 28 -2 16 -2 0 -2 -7 1 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 -2 4 0 4 2 4 2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 140 189 227 262 318 427 263 122 -20 -192 -310 -401 -469 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.8 90.4 90.9 91.6 93.2 94.6 96.1 97.5 98.9 99.9 100.8 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 41 51 71 89 66 66 43 40 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 6. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 33. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 89.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 19.5% 15.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 12.3% 7.1% 2.6% 0.9% 5.0% 8.3% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 2.5% 11.1% 7.8% 4.4% 0.3% 1.8% 6.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 33 38 45 42 32 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 37 44 41 31 27 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 39 36 26 22 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 32 29 19 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT