* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 29 32 37 44 49 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 29 32 37 44 49 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 42 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 15 5 4 11 6 10 10 17 16 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 316 325 355 22 290 356 22 3 327 331 310 346 357 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.5 30.6 29.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 156 160 166 171 171 168 153 155 153 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 138 141 148 162 163 149 133 134 128 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 11 9 11 9 12 10 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 68 66 67 67 68 65 64 60 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 5 7 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -7 14 6 -1 -4 -30 -33 -44 -37 -34 -19 200 MB DIV 52 32 11 22 18 3 19 -5 3 -12 -1 -1 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -6 0 0 0 -1 6 0 6 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 86 145 181 227 265 396 347 187 19 -176 -344 -448 -504 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.4 24.1 25.2 26.4 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.1 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.0 89.5 90.0 90.6 92.2 93.8 95.4 97.0 98.7 100.0 101.0 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 7 9 9 10 9 9 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 39 48 67 79 66 51 41 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 12. 19. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 88.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 16.0% 12.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 3.1% 8.5% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 1.7% 7.3% 5.1% 3.3% 0.1% 1.1% 6.3% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 29 32 37 44 49 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 28 31 36 43 48 32 28 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 24 27 32 39 44 28 24 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 30 35 19 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT