* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 31 32 39 44 48 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 31 32 39 44 48 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 16 7 13 6 12 9 15 17 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 0 -6 0 -6 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 306 304 317 344 354 319 13 346 359 330 348 340 11 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 155 161 167 171 172 170 155 155 151 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 138 143 149 156 163 150 136 134 128 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 66 68 66 67 64 64 59 60 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 6 4 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -34 -15 10 -22 -7 -40 -40 -42 -43 -36 -41 200 MB DIV 25 40 30 13 26 -1 24 -5 9 -7 -6 -6 -14 700-850 TADV 11 2 -4 0 2 -1 4 0 5 0 6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 64 138 178 231 290 422 415 219 7 -201 -395 -526 -617 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.8 25.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30.1 30.7 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.5 88.0 88.6 89.2 90.9 92.9 94.8 96.8 98.6 100.3 101.5 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 8 9 11 10 10 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 36 44 50 57 66 59 67 48 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 14. 19. 23. 27. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.1 87.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.77 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.1% 9.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 4.1% 19.3% 33.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% Consensus: 1.4% 5.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.2% 1.4% 9.3% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 27 28 31 32 39 44 48 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 28 29 36 41 45 30 26 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 26 33 38 42 27 23 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 19 26 31 35 20 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT