* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 35 38 44 48 53 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 23 28 29 35 39 44 48 46 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 22 25 25 27 29 32 36 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 14 17 23 21 17 18 7 13 3 10 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 6 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -6 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 262 274 257 278 304 299 335 317 351 305 346 267 330 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.1 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 158 154 152 150 159 170 171 171 166 156 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 145 139 137 133 141 152 153 156 146 135 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 66 65 65 66 67 67 68 68 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -24 -38 -43 -23 -28 -18 -25 -22 -48 -44 -39 200 MB DIV 54 72 64 38 12 35 34 6 3 8 -5 4 -12 700-850 TADV 4 10 8 2 3 4 -2 1 -2 4 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 165 114 70 20 -21 103 217 346 425 365 170 -4 -185 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.4 28.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.4 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.7 88.5 89.7 91.3 93.0 94.7 96.2 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 60 53 40 31 29 48 58 60 68 78 70 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 13. 19. 23. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 86.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.31 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.9% 12.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.4% 3.5% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.3% 6.5% 4.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.8% 3.5% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 23 28 29 35 39 44 48 46 34 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 22 27 28 34 38 43 47 45 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 19 24 25 31 35 40 44 42 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT