* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 46 50 54 57 57 57 62 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 46 50 54 57 57 57 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 52 54 53 51 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 5 3 7 12 17 19 22 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 2 0 -1 0 0 1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 33 59 79 356 357 306 323 294 289 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.4 25.9 26.3 27.2 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 111 113 117 119 114 119 129 138 138 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 112 109 111 115 117 113 118 129 140 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 62 61 59 59 55 53 50 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 52 61 61 55 55 33 19 17 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 20 23 25 5 1 11 -15 -10 14 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -9 -9 -8 -3 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1470 1364 1266 1189 1123 1002 928 894 745 539 445 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 3 2 23 16 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 27. 27. 32. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 39.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.8% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 17.9% 15.4% 6.5% 1.9% 9.1% 3.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.4% 13.2% 11.2% 2.2% 0.7% 3.3% 1.8% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 07/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 42 46 50 54 57 57 57 62 66 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 42 46 50 53 53 53 58 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 37 41 45 48 48 48 53 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 32 36 39 39 39 44 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT