* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 58 63 65 62 62 67 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 58 63 65 62 62 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 54 60 62 61 59 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 7 5 11 8 16 15 21 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -2 1 2 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 24 27 49 48 3 326 320 296 290 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 26.2 25.6 25.6 26.1 26.5 25.9 26.4 27.6 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 115 116 110 110 115 120 115 120 134 145 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 113 113 106 107 112 118 115 121 138 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -54.6 -55.1 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 65 64 63 62 58 60 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 13 12 13 11 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 52 51 52 58 45 31 20 12 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 43 30 27 17 -14 8 6 0 6 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -8 -9 -7 -5 0 0 -4 -6 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1610 1511 1416 1339 1266 1144 1045 947 893 631 361 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 10 10 13 16 17 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 5 19 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 32. 32. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 38.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 22.5% 17.0% 6.7% 2.5% 10.6% 7.4% 5.6% Bayesian: 2.6% 1.9% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.4% 5.4% 0.4% Consensus: 5.1% 14.8% 12.2% 2.4% 0.9% 4.3% 4.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 07/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 52 58 63 65 62 62 67 71 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 47 53 58 60 57 57 62 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 46 51 53 50 50 55 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 37 42 44 41 41 46 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT