* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 52 55 56 57 63 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 52 55 56 57 63 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 42 45 46 46 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 6 8 2 8 11 15 23 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -1 2 0 2 3 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 118 76 38 57 326 350 283 298 279 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.8 26.4 25.7 26.0 27.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 113 112 110 113 119 112 116 126 140 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 112 110 108 110 117 110 114 126 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 60 60 62 59 57 53 52 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 46 49 49 61 38 17 5 0 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 43 31 14 6 -13 -1 5 -12 4 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -6 -11 -9 -4 -1 6 2 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1755 1642 1534 1442 1355 1198 1102 1021 965 816 540 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 1 20 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. 38. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 36.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 12.1% 11.6% 3.9% 0.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.2% 9.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 07/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 52 55 56 57 63 67 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 45 49 52 53 54 60 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 39 43 46 47 48 54 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 34 37 38 39 45 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT