* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 54 60 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 54 60 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 47 50 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 6 7 5 9 6 12 13 22 25 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 7 7 7 2 0 SHEAR DIR 55 71 94 83 63 77 340 325 317 282 285 278 280 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.6 26.4 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.3 27.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 119 117 112 118 122 119 116 118 127 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 121 118 112 117 120 115 114 115 127 139 138 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 65 63 61 60 59 60 56 55 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 11 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 48 55 58 60 51 41 19 1 -4 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 33 34 43 32 -4 -12 -22 0 -5 -9 -15 0 24 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -7 -9 -6 -1 1 4 -1 2 5 13 LAND (KM) 1902 1759 1610 1463 1322 1103 963 895 880 905 773 600 484 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.5 38.1 39.7 41.3 43.9 46.1 47.9 49.8 52.0 54.9 58.1 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 11 10 9 12 13 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 9 9 4 1 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 29. 35. 36. 37. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 34.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.3% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.3% 5.7% 1.4% 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.9% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 54 60 61 62 63 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 39 45 51 57 58 59 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 40 46 52 53 54 55 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 31 37 43 44 45 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT