* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 51 58 64 66 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 51 58 64 66 66 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 50 54 55 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 9 10 5 9 10 15 20 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 1 0 1 3 0 3 4 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 40 48 75 93 84 79 3 10 312 313 284 287 284 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.7 27.1 26.9 27.3 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 123 119 116 122 125 122 128 121 125 129 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 127 121 117 121 124 119 125 118 124 130 137 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -54.9 -55.2 -54.7 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 67 65 62 63 60 63 59 59 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 41 54 63 65 60 41 32 7 2 -4 -16 200 MB DIV 39 26 38 46 24 -15 -11 -2 18 -5 -16 -2 12 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -6 -8 -9 -2 1 3 1 -1 0 13 LAND (KM) 1837 1860 1704 1544 1388 1120 946 876 833 880 908 675 581 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 11.0 11.7 13.0 14.0 15.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.5 37.2 38.9 40.5 43.5 45.7 47.4 49.1 50.9 53.3 56.6 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 12 10 8 10 11 15 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 9 1 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 26. 33. 39. 41. 41. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 33.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.0% 11.5% 5.6% 1.5% 4.6% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 10.4% 8.9% 1.9% 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 36 44 51 58 64 66 66 66 65 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 41 48 55 61 63 63 63 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 43 50 56 58 58 58 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 40 46 48 48 48 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT