* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 59 68 73 76 75 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 59 68 73 76 75 74 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 34 37 44 51 58 66 71 69 64 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 11 10 11 6 5 3 16 19 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 -2 3 2 5 3 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 29 35 70 86 74 89 2 295 300 285 288 276 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 25.7 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 122 122 123 113 121 122 122 119 122 128 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 124 123 125 112 120 119 118 116 120 129 137 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 68 68 63 62 61 60 62 58 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 16 16 16 15 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 39 35 47 62 59 55 34 7 -3 -16 -38 200 MB DIV 66 51 32 47 54 -20 -24 -20 14 3 -7 -6 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -6 -7 -8 -4 0 5 8 0 1 7 LAND (KM) 1690 1831 1907 1774 1635 1362 1142 996 943 945 1000 823 728 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.3 12.0 13.1 14.5 15.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.5 34.9 36.4 37.9 41.0 43.7 46.0 47.7 49.7 52.1 55.3 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 10 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 2 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 34. 43. 48. 51. 50. 49. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 32.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.5% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 27.9% 21.5% 11.1% 4.1% 10.3% 3.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.7% 4.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 6.5% 0.1% Consensus: 6.4% 17.5% 13.7% 3.8% 1.4% 4.4% 3.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 37 42 52 59 68 73 76 75 74 72 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 47 54 63 68 71 70 69 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 47 56 61 64 63 62 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 37 46 51 54 53 52 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT