* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 07/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 58 66 72 74 77 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 58 66 72 74 77 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 63 70 72 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 12 11 11 1 1 11 17 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 3 1 0 -1 7 3 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 79 70 67 83 72 81 43 89 264 299 279 283 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 126 121 121 120 119 112 120 121 121 118 125 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 128 122 122 121 120 110 118 119 120 117 125 132 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -54.8 -55.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 71 71 67 64 66 60 60 56 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 14 14 14 12 11 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 53 51 45 37 49 55 57 33 7 -2 -11 -20 200 MB DIV 49 53 41 25 29 13 -35 -32 -15 -6 -10 -27 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 -9 -4 0 1 5 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1538 1680 1800 1921 1815 1548 1335 1158 1051 972 965 855 666 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.9 38.8 41.3 43.7 46.1 48.5 51.1 54.2 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 14 14 14 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 26. 33. 41. 47. 49. 52. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 30.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 07/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 21.0% 17.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 23.9% 18.8% 8.0% 2.7% 8.0% 2.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 3.8% 0.1% Consensus: 5.5% 15.9% 12.7% 6.6% 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 07/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 38 42 51 58 66 72 74 77 77 76 18HR AGO 25 24 29 33 37 46 53 61 67 69 72 72 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 45 53 59 61 64 64 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 35 43 49 51 54 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT