* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 66 68 51 31 26 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 66 68 51 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 51 45 35 31 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 13 16 18 23 13 42 51 40 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 1 6 2 9 14 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 257 281 301 303 287 287 280 263 225 246 268 276 N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.6 24.7 23.3 19.4 13.1 11.5 12.1 10.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 111 110 105 99 85 75 74 74 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 94 95 95 94 91 81 73 72 72 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -55.3 -56.0 -58.2 -58.9 -57.1 -55.8 -54.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 1.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 54 53 57 60 54 41 43 65 79 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 14 21 21 13 5 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 16 13 10 7 6 24 -28 -54 -31 13 N/A 200 MB DIV 27 16 12 9 -5 18 32 74 25 2 7 -163 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 5 8 18 33 40 -33 -140 -38 63 N/A LAND (KM) 1915 1920 1888 1846 1773 1512 1128 832 1147 882 -26 -461 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.9 33.4 37.4 42.8 49.5 55.3 57.9 59.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.0 50.8 50.6 50.2 49.3 47.6 44.1 37.3 23.5 4.0 -13.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 9 17 25 36 45 56 51 44 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 0. -9. -18. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 13. 13. 3. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 41. 43. 26. 6. 1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.3 51.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.37 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 92.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.4% 3.2% 0.2% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 66 68 51 31 29 29 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 43 51 63 65 48 28 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 44 56 58 41 21 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 35 47 49 32 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT