* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 49 56 65 73 75 63 47 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 49 56 65 73 75 63 41 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 58 60 55 48 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 17 12 21 18 21 14 26 34 33 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 4 9 7 9 3 4 SHEAR DIR 262 258 281 303 309 297 282 287 275 257 267 315 350 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.4 24.5 22.8 19.6 12.7 12.8 11.8 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 111 111 109 104 96 86 75 75 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 93 94 94 95 94 89 81 73 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.0 -56.6 -56.3 -56.2 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -58.4 -59.8 -58.7 -59.0 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 52 53 55 59 59 48 44 45 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 9 12 17 21 22 15 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 11 20 19 6 7 32 -3 -47 -86 -8 -61 200 MB DIV 41 30 9 6 8 -8 30 34 64 24 27 -8 -75 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 0 2 10 26 42 60 86 11 48 0 LAND (KM) 1861 1889 1904 1883 1852 1729 1457 1102 970 1423 510 -47 -172 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 31.3 34.0 38.1 43.2 49.5 54.3 54.4 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 51.7 51.6 51.4 51.1 50.2 48.8 46.4 41.8 33.5 17.8 1.7 -8.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 5 11 19 27 36 49 53 39 30 HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -7. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 15. 5. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 26. 35. 43. 45. 33. 17. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.2 51.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 97.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 8.2% 4.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 7.4% 5.2% 0.6% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 44 49 56 65 73 75 63 41 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 45 52 61 69 71 59 37 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 38 45 54 62 64 52 30 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 44 52 54 42 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT