* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 48 56 64 75 74 58 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 48 56 64 75 74 58 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 53 56 51 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 12 17 13 23 16 20 15 20 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 1 2 1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 268 279 258 259 281 288 295 284 283 272 233 247 275 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.0 21.1 17.4 12.7 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 112 111 111 111 108 104 96 88 79 74 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 98 94 92 92 94 94 93 87 81 75 72 73 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.6 -57.3 -56.9 -56.4 -56.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -57.2 -59.7 -62.0 -63.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 51 51 52 53 58 61 51 44 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 10 14 21 19 9 1 850 MB ENV VOR 3 18 25 21 12 23 9 13 16 38 -52 -160 -202 200 MB DIV 34 32 44 25 11 13 -7 38 31 41 19 15 -15 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 1 2 2 9 20 42 57 29 -4 29 LAND (KM) 1799 1846 1881 1892 1881 1853 1743 1481 1154 972 1109 1413 528 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.1 31.2 33.8 37.5 41.5 45.8 50.1 51.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.0 51.9 51.8 51.7 51.0 50.0 48.7 46.6 43.3 38.5 30.3 18.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 3 1 2 5 10 18 22 25 31 38 39 HEAT CONTENT 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. 18. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 3. 7. 15. 11. -2. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 31. 39. 50. 49. 33. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.5 52.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.4% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 6.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.2% 4.3% 0.3% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 43 48 56 64 75 74 58 44 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 40 45 53 61 72 71 55 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 38 46 54 65 64 48 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 37 45 56 55 39 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT