* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 45 50 53 57 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 45 50 53 57 58 59 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 48 50 51 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 7 7 13 9 23 17 19 16 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -6 -4 -6 -1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 251 267 277 211 258 267 293 283 300 301 314 257 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.3 24.6 23.4 21.3 17.0 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 118 114 111 107 106 106 104 98 89 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 108 101 97 94 89 89 90 92 89 83 76 73 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.7 -58.1 -58.1 -57.9 -56.7 -56.3 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -56.7 -58.9 -60.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 52 52 51 51 52 58 66 67 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 3 16 21 17 22 3 13 12 44 1 -78 200 MB DIV 37 41 33 33 36 15 13 -8 20 31 48 44 35 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 1 2 0 2 2 14 33 63 105 3 LAND (KM) 1747 1846 1912 1909 1854 1799 1754 1680 1474 1162 950 1130 1233 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.0 31.7 33.7 37.1 41.2 46.1 51.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 51.1 50.9 50.9 50.9 50.9 51.0 50.6 49.6 47.5 44.0 38.1 28.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 6 5 2 3 6 15 22 28 37 43 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.0 51.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.45 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.8% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 40 45 50 53 57 58 59 59 59 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 41 46 49 53 54 55 55 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 34 39 42 46 47 48 48 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 29 32 36 37 38 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT