* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 44 51 58 63 63 65 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 44 51 58 63 63 65 62 64 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 52 54 53 51 47 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 10 10 14 12 15 23 34 32 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 36 323 306 294 265 268 231 278 283 284 269 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 147 149 145 138 137 137 141 143 144 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 154 152 154 150 141 140 140 145 146 145 148 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 57 59 62 57 55 55 56 57 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 29 13 28 23 23 32 45 59 25 4 1 200 MB DIV 17 17 13 13 20 65 44 42 41 35 35 47 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -9 3 1 -6 -1 0 5 LAND (KM) 617 609 555 466 314 149 234 213 178 375 381 107 -121 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.8 55.3 56.8 58.3 61.4 64.7 68.1 71.6 75.3 79.0 82.2 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 41 47 50 57 22 26 30 26 58 40 23 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. -0. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -0. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 28. 33. 33. 35. 32. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 52.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.86 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 18.4% 13.9% 8.7% 7.2% 13.0% 16.1% 19.8% Logistic: 6.6% 31.3% 18.2% 9.7% 5.0% 14.5% 30.1% 46.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 11.0% 8.4% Consensus: 4.6% 17.6% 11.0% 6.2% 4.1% 9.6% 19.1% 24.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 44 51 58 63 63 65 62 64 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 40 47 54 59 59 61 58 60 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 41 48 53 53 55 52 54 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 39 44 44 46 43 45 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT