* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 53 60 62 61 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 53 60 62 61 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 47 47 45 42 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 5 7 8 13 18 21 24 29 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 3 0 -2 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 66 55 352 331 263 254 224 240 250 274 263 281 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 148 149 146 141 138 141 142 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 150 151 152 154 152 145 143 145 145 145 149 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 9 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 64 60 59 56 52 56 54 56 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 41 26 18 20 25 19 33 40 50 10 -5 200 MB DIV 20 22 18 8 13 31 39 48 25 24 21 37 25 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -9 -4 1 5 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 631 591 577 582 533 332 216 336 287 287 289 319 83 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.9 53.0 54.2 55.5 58.2 61.5 64.9 68.6 72.4 76.1 79.5 82.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 13 13 15 17 17 19 18 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 33 44 47 53 39 33 39 57 49 67 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 28. 35. 37. 36. 37. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 50.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.9% 12.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 25.4% 14.1% 5.8% 2.9% 12.8% 36.8% 47.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 2.7% Consensus: 3.7% 15.8% 9.4% 4.6% 1.0% 4.5% 17.9% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 46 53 60 62 61 62 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 43 50 57 59 58 59 58 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 37 44 51 53 52 53 52 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 35 42 44 43 44 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT