* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 56 62 67 69 69 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 56 62 67 69 69 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 55 60 59 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 9 6 3 7 10 17 24 28 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 1 -4 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 95 91 88 85 94 7 259 250 230 245 248 276 262 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 141 141 141 142 143 143 144 141 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 140 141 142 142 146 149 149 151 146 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 66 67 61 58 55 52 52 51 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 26 41 37 23 26 34 24 28 34 40 -4 200 MB DIV 65 48 22 32 31 10 19 41 44 4 19 17 40 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -8 -5 1 5 2 6 2 LAND (KM) 796 719 680 664 639 609 393 188 296 290 287 277 324 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.8 49.1 50.2 51.2 52.3 54.8 57.6 61.0 64.6 68.4 72.4 76.4 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 13 16 17 19 20 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 28 21 18 24 45 47 42 32 43 59 50 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 31. 37. 42. 44. 44. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 47.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.7% 11.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 28.1% 14.7% 5.5% 4.2% 7.0% 10.3% 30.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 6.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.8% 4.7% Consensus: 4.1% 16.6% 9.2% 4.2% 1.4% 2.7% 9.4% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 38 47 56 62 67 69 69 69 67 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 43 52 58 63 65 65 65 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 37 46 52 57 59 59 59 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 37 43 48 50 50 50 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT