* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 63 69 70 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 63 69 70 70 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 55 61 61 58 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 2 3 10 12 19 26 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 5 0 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 104 104 98 89 95 65 314 257 244 236 267 275 276 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 138 139 140 140 143 142 143 142 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 139 139 142 143 149 148 149 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 64 64 62 56 56 52 53 51 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 33 25 40 18 21 31 33 32 28 45 13 200 MB DIV 60 73 61 40 50 26 11 43 33 16 14 34 38 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 -7 -4 1 4 3 6 LAND (KM) 926 847 793 753 738 704 541 251 277 312 231 346 369 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.3 48.5 49.7 50.9 53.3 56.3 59.6 63.2 67.0 71.1 75.3 79.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 41 32 21 18 38 40 45 33 42 32 66 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):269/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 38. 44. 45. 45. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 46.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.7% 14.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 27.7% 13.9% 4.3% 2.6% 9.3% 14.1% 22.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.9% Consensus: 4.3% 17.1% 9.7% 4.3% 0.9% 3.3% 10.6% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 63 69 70 70 71 70 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 46 54 59 65 66 66 67 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 39 47 52 58 59 59 60 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 37 42 48 49 49 50 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT