* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 49 56 60 64 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 49 56 60 64 65 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 36 40 42 43 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 9 4 4 1 9 11 14 24 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 0 2 2 2 1 1 0 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 135 122 118 119 119 133 221 260 259 243 269 283 292 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 133 136 138 140 142 142 143 142 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 133 134 138 141 144 148 148 149 148 145 149 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 13 11 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 65 62 63 59 56 55 54 54 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 32 30 19 18 12 13 27 25 31 34 26 200 MB DIV 61 61 70 63 36 39 16 18 26 25 6 29 33 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -7 -7 -3 1 -3 -4 -3 4 0 8 LAND (KM) 1080 1006 954 892 847 783 668 349 266 311 201 366 360 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.2 46.5 47.8 49.2 52.1 55.2 58.7 62.4 66.2 70.2 74.4 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 18 18 19 20 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 26 30 22 27 45 39 36 35 26 78 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 36. 40. 44. 45. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 44.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 30.2% 15.0% 5.8% 4.6% 17.8% 12.3% 22.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.4% 4.1% Consensus: 2.1% 11.3% 5.2% 2.0% 1.5% 6.4% 4.2% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 41 49 56 60 64 65 67 68 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 38 46 53 57 61 62 64 65 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 32 40 47 51 55 56 58 59 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT