* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 59 64 69 74 74 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 59 64 69 74 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 37 44 50 53 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 7 6 5 3 1 9 10 15 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 157 152 141 132 126 107 93 348 276 259 222 263 275 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 133 135 139 140 141 143 140 142 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 132 134 137 141 142 144 148 144 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 64 65 64 63 60 59 58 58 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 37 38 34 32 21 20 34 33 39 41 47 200 MB DIV 79 61 55 69 73 51 30 13 37 35 34 28 23 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -2 -7 -4 6 1 1 LAND (KM) 1135 1035 972 910 830 751 686 431 168 222 264 197 368 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.8 46.1 47.4 48.8 51.5 54.3 57.3 60.4 63.7 67.2 70.9 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 13 14 15 16 16 18 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 20 29 23 21 42 42 47 28 31 28 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 28. 39. 44. 49. 54. 54. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 43.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 16.4% 6.7% 1.5% 1.0% 3.3% 4.0% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.0% 5.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 59 64 69 74 74 73 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 36 46 57 62 67 72 72 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 41 52 57 62 67 67 66 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT