* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 37 42 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 37 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 22 21 22 23 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 19 23 29 29 18 17 16 19 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 3 -1 3 1 0 -3 -5 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 278 266 263 247 253 257 274 278 293 299 326 324 338 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 124 120 116 116 121 125 127 128 131 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 121 116 111 111 116 120 121 120 123 123 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 68 68 66 61 51 49 45 51 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -27 -25 -14 -10 23 45 70 80 77 91 81 49 200 MB DIV 46 27 12 28 66 40 3 -12 -11 7 1 -1 11 700-850 TADV -9 -5 5 10 7 5 -9 -6 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 499 631 793 934 1066 1395 1749 2115 2006 1780 1607 1492 1477 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.3 20.2 19.3 18.2 16.9 15.6 14.6 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.6 27.1 30.4 33.8 37.2 39.9 41.6 42.5 42.9 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 16 16 17 15 12 9 7 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 4 1 0 0 4 16 12 8 17 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 12. 17. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 22.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 37 42 46 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 30 29 30 31 35 40 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 25 26 27 31 36 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 18 19 20 24 29 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT