* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 34 33 31 31 34 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 34 33 31 31 34 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 31 31 29 26 24 23 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 20 26 33 27 22 23 26 24 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 282 284 260 245 260 260 272 287 283 291 304 344 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 126 123 122 116 120 126 129 130 134 136 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 122 121 119 114 116 124 125 123 126 128 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 72 68 68 69 68 63 57 48 47 44 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -15 -25 -25 -16 -8 33 55 61 60 58 78 65 200 MB DIV 64 49 33 31 41 31 18 -28 -25 -14 -5 -21 -2 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 7 14 10 4 -8 -4 0 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 333 393 517 673 848 1193 1612 2036 2038 1754 1559 1371 1213 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.9 20.4 19.7 18.8 17.7 16.8 15.6 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 20.6 21.1 22.0 23.1 24.7 28.4 32.5 36.5 40.2 43.0 44.8 46.1 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 17 18 20 19 19 16 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 8 1 0 2 13 9 20 21 19 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. 9. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 20.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 34 33 31 31 34 38 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 32 33 31 30 28 28 31 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 26 27 25 24 22 22 25 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT