* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 34 39 38 38 38 37 42 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 34 39 38 38 38 37 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 26 23 22 21 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 5 13 24 28 29 22 23 24 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 2 4 3 3 1 1 -4 -1 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 309 341 16 320 275 252 261 255 270 279 289 300 296 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 131 129 123 118 121 124 127 128 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 127 126 119 113 116 119 121 121 125 126 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 74 73 71 70 72 67 56 53 50 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 12 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 18 6 -9 -19 -16 -22 9 27 35 72 74 84 81 200 MB DIV 66 78 53 27 27 42 26 -7 -44 -11 20 3 1 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -5 2 14 3 0 -7 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 363 406 453 527 640 957 1265 1612 1965 2095 1853 1639 1492 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.2 18.1 19.3 19.6 19.0 18.2 17.2 15.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.3 25.8 29.0 32.4 35.7 38.6 40.9 42.4 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 14 16 16 16 16 13 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 13 15 2 4 3 9 17 6 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 18. 18. 18. 17. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 20.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/13/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 31 34 39 38 38 38 37 42 45 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 31 36 35 35 35 34 39 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 26 31 30 30 30 29 34 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT