* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 44 49 49 48 49 51 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 44 49 49 48 49 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 30 32 32 31 29 28 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 7 8 17 23 23 23 22 19 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 1 3 0 2 1 0 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 323 324 356 327 254 254 264 286 296 296 325 338 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 132 133 128 122 120 124 125 128 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 126 127 130 125 118 116 121 120 120 118 119 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 75 73 72 72 70 64 56 54 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 10 11 11 13 13 16 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 13 22 11 0 -17 -16 -10 36 46 65 90 89 81 200 MB DIV 80 77 95 69 33 22 59 43 -17 5 1 30 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -9 -5 9 6 7 -9 -5 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 359 426 482 520 601 845 1174 1497 1865 2144 1911 1752 1649 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.2 15.0 16.9 18.3 19.1 18.8 18.1 17.1 16.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.3 23.1 25.1 27.9 31.2 34.7 37.8 39.9 41.1 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 12 15 16 16 17 13 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 13 10 4 12 5 8 8 5 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 24. 29. 29. 29. 29. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 20.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 40.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 30 34 41 44 49 49 48 49 51 55 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 31 38 41 46 46 45 46 48 52 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 34 39 39 38 39 41 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT