* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 28 26 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 7 6 14 23 28 31 25 21 23 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -6 -6 -2 2 5 3 2 -1 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 12 348 327 332 313 275 260 265 282 292 280 283 273 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.6 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 132 132 133 129 122 117 121 126 127 130 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 127 128 128 126 117 112 117 122 122 124 128 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 77 74 72 71 72 65 56 51 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 16 3 -15 -20 -14 6 38 44 89 76 78 200 MB DIV 87 76 65 80 57 18 54 30 4 -10 5 4 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 -1 -4 5 11 16 -15 -9 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 291 383 444 501 569 785 1084 1367 1692 2088 2067 1827 1628 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.8 16.6 18.3 19.4 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.8 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.6 27.0 30.0 33.2 37.0 40.4 43.4 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 14 15 15 17 17 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 11 13 15 6 14 2 1 10 5 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 18. 18. 17. 19. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 19.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 31 36 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 28 33 36 35 35 34 36 39 43 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 27 30 29 29 28 30 33 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT