* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 06/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 45 49 54 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 34 39 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 31 34 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 11 7 7 4 3 3 5 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 2 7 7 5 3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 255 231 225 235 241 241 253 239 307 57 94 121 140 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 27.5 26.0 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 165 161 158 156 154 154 153 155 130 113 106 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 161 153 148 145 143 142 143 144 120 104 97 98 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 11 10 14 10 12 8 9 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 69 70 63 66 63 65 64 65 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -48 -33 -21 -18 -13 -11 -25 -19 -15 -26 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 18 23 19 3 2 11 -2 -9 -15 -7 -14 13 -3 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 3 0 -3 0 -2 1 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 17 30 11 -62 -126 -250 -287 -191 -19 168 330 362 476 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.7 95.9 96.9 97.8 99.5 101.3 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.3 111.1 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 9 9 8 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 8 26 15 0 0 0 33 11 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 93.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 06/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 22.1% 12.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% Logistic: 6.1% 40.7% 26.7% 12.2% 0.0% 14.1% 41.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.1% 21.3% 13.0% 7.5% 0.0% 4.7% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952016 INVEST 06/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 06/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 34 39 42 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 24 25 26 26 26 33 38 41 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 20 21 22 22 22 29 34 37 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 18 25 30 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT