* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 06/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 46 50 53 57 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 29 34 42 31 28 27 31 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 25 29 31 34 28 27 27 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 12 9 8 4 7 5 2 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -6 1 -2 5 10 7 10 6 SHEAR DIR 267 275 264 281 284 277 328 253 245 234 184 160 157 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.3 25.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 164 165 167 163 158 154 156 157 142 113 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 161 159 159 162 156 149 144 146 148 133 105 97 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 12 10 14 10 11 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 72 72 69 68 63 63 62 63 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -32 -31 -49 -53 -34 -11 -1 2 -13 -12 -17 -24 200 MB DIV 17 9 21 25 15 8 5 4 2 1 -20 -12 -13 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 3 0 1 -1 -4 -1 -4 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 106 0 -116 -63 43 147 3 -182 -347 -114 109 292 357 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.1 21.0 20.7 20.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.2 89.3 90.4 91.7 94.3 96.8 99.2 101.6 104.1 106.7 109.1 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 18 40 36 14 18 11 0 0 25 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 32. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 87.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 06/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.96 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.4% 10.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% Logistic: 3.9% 23.7% 11.1% 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% 38.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 13.9% 7.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.1% 18.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952016 INVEST 06/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 06/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 29 34 42 31 28 27 31 34 35 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 28 33 41 30 27 26 30 33 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 26 31 39 28 25 24 28 31 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 32 21 18 17 21 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT