* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 10/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 48 50 48 42 41 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 48 50 48 42 41 41 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 47 47 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 2 5 10 22 33 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 1 0 0 1 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 96 135 160 215 231 234 230 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.2 25.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 141 136 130 122 115 113 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 136 129 124 115 108 105 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 60 60 56 53 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 70 58 40 42 13 15 17 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 5 23 33 24 40 47 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 3 16 13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 260 341 388 422 467 582 716 884 1021 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 18. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 19.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 10/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 23.1% 16.2% 12.1% 9.4% 12.1% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 35.5% 28.3% 9.1% 3.0% 12.1% 6.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 15.8% 8.4% 0.8% 0.5% 5.1% 3.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 24.8% 17.6% 7.4% 4.3% 9.8% 8.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 10/14/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 48 50 48 42 41 41 41 42 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 43 45 43 37 36 36 36 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 36 38 36 30 29 29 29 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 27 29 27 21 20 20 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT