* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 10/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 51 51 49 46 44 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 51 51 49 46 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 33 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 5 7 5 10 10 19 30 36 39 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 1 0 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 193 210 183 182 191 195 212 217 227 245 252 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 137 136 136 133 131 129 126 120 112 111 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 134 131 129 124 121 121 117 112 103 100 98 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 53 53 54 54 53 51 50 45 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 6 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 97 74 63 55 57 48 34 22 8 5 -12 -22 -29 200 MB DIV 33 26 6 -1 12 17 42 36 25 18 1 8 0 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 2 6 8 17 18 15 0 LAND (KM) 216 356 466 568 640 744 789 810 829 881 985 967 893 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.2 15.4 16.7 18.3 19.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 18.8 20.3 21.5 22.5 23.2 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.2 25.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 8 6 4 3 5 6 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 6 8 16 22 21 19 16 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 26. 26. 24. 21. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 18.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 10/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 16.5% 11.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.2% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2.6% 3.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 8.3% 5.8% 3.0% 0.1% 1.0% 5.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 10/14/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 51 51 49 46 44 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 43 49 49 47 44 42 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 38 44 44 42 39 37 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 30 36 36 34 31 29 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT