* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 10/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 59 61 58 49 40 33 28 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 59 61 58 49 40 33 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 48 50 47 42 35 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 3 2 4 7 10 15 28 45 51 48 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -2 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 156 128 178 180 127 200 211 229 231 243 241 244 239 SST (C) 29.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.1 25.8 24.8 24.2 23.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 144 142 143 144 137 127 115 112 104 99 95 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 144 139 139 139 130 120 108 105 96 90 86 79 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.9 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 3 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 65 63 62 60 57 55 52 45 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 10 9 11 11 9 7 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 111 106 93 84 70 43 36 16 30 -3 -26 -56 -48 200 MB DIV 38 43 43 37 18 22 34 44 23 5 -2 3 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 5 9 12 3 -7 -18 LAND (KM) 26 88 195 281 357 410 483 557 615 478 386 302 194 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.8 16.5 18.6 20.8 22.6 23.7 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 16.4 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.1 22.0 22.4 22.3 21.6 20.6 19.2 17.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 9 9 9 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 1. -7. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 34. 36. 33. 24. 15. 8. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 16.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 10/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 29.3% 18.4% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 38.3% 32.2% 15.1% 4.3% 14.7% 13.4% 9.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.4% 4.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.5% 10.8% 0.8% Consensus: 5.3% 24.0% 18.3% 8.8% 1.5% 5.4% 13.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 10/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 39 43 51 59 61 58 49 40 33 28 18HR AGO 25 24 29 34 38 46 54 56 53 44 35 28 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 38 46 48 45 36 27 20 15 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 35 37 34 25 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT