* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 10/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 49 57 61 60 57 53 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 49 57 61 60 57 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 31 36 42 44 42 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 8 3 6 11 26 37 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 -3 -5 -4 -2 0 5 2 1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 208 167 143 145 119 111 178 185 233 241 242 237 238 SST (C) 30.0 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 151 143 143 144 139 133 128 118 113 108 105 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 151 142 141 140 131 126 121 110 104 99 95 91 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 64 63 61 59 57 55 50 46 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 112 106 84 78 55 44 24 13 23 6 -8 -13 200 MB DIV 31 33 37 47 34 13 16 49 56 12 6 8 3 700-850 TADV -4 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 6 13 21 11 3 LAND (KM) 12 31 154 261 348 459 507 539 568 622 612 531 451 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.4 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 15.6 17.0 18.2 19.2 20.0 21.1 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.1 21.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 7 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 13 8 9 10 7 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 3. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 37. 41. 40. 37. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 15.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 10/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.0% 48.1% 49.0% 48.6% 19.5% 29.7% 20.9% 16.3% Bayesian: 5.4% 15.8% 17.9% 2.2% 1.1% 4.8% 2.2% 1.6% Consensus: 11.5% 21.3% 22.3% 16.9% 6.9% 11.5% 7.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 10/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 28 31 40 49 57 61 60 57 53 49 18HR AGO 20 19 21 25 28 37 46 54 58 57 54 50 46 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 32 41 49 53 52 49 45 41 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT