* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 19 27 34 40 45 50 55 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 19 27 34 40 45 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 17 22 24 19 14 10 5 3 6 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 8 6 5 5 0 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 311 309 283 285 290 296 322 343 352 89 176 182 192 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 157 157 158 165 161 159 168 168 162 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 149 152 152 157 165 160 158 165 164 156 158 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 56 54 56 55 55 58 59 58 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -4 -9 -16 -12 -25 -20 -21 -13 -6 9 28 200 MB DIV -34 -15 -14 -17 -35 -18 -25 -6 0 19 4 13 14 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -8 -5 -5 -1 -1 2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 927 875 836 804 774 645 481 444 456 222 102 61 -11 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 51.9 52.6 53.3 54.0 55.6 57.8 60.1 62.5 64.8 67.0 69.1 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 10 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 29 31 31 35 48 49 47 71 82 97 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 17. 23. 29. 32. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 51.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 2.1% 4.5% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/11/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 17 16 16 19 27 34 40 45 50 48 18HR AGO 20 19 18 17 16 16 19 27 34 40 45 50 48 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT