* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/11/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 20 24 29 34 38 42 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 20 24 29 34 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 16 17 22 17 12 8 5 7 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 6 6 3 -2 -1 -1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 293 290 303 299 271 281 282 305 316 1 168 214 199 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 145 145 149 157 165 163 166 166 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 137 136 137 143 154 164 161 162 160 158 157 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 55 56 57 57 57 57 60 61 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 -3 -14 -8 -14 -21 -34 -38 -29 -11 -7 23 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -18 -19 -21 -21 -28 -18 -10 -3 17 10 11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 -4 -7 -3 -3 2 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1116 1080 1047 1015 986 937 829 675 629 522 293 54 25 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.4 50.1 50.6 51.1 52.5 54.3 56.5 58.7 61.0 63.0 65.2 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 12 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 34 27 25 23 27 40 56 55 63 60 73 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 48.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.7% 3.8% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.9% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/11/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 20 24 29 34 38 41 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 20 24 29 34 38 41 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 15 15 16 18 22 27 32 36 39 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT