* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/10/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 33 38 41 43 48 51 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 33 38 41 43 48 51 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 28 29 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 9 11 10 9 10 12 9 5 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 1 5 5 7 5 2 1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 279 297 313 314 305 329 284 298 276 289 252 191 174 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 140 141 143 145 149 157 163 169 169 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 133 133 134 138 146 157 163 169 169 171 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 55 54 60 58 59 55 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 -1 0 -7 -23 -11 -20 -23 -17 -10 3 39 200 MB DIV 17 -5 2 1 -5 -30 -26 -1 2 0 -4 35 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1233 1173 1115 1072 1036 978 926 863 836 652 480 444 429 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.5 47.3 47.9 48.4 49.2 50.1 51.6 53.6 55.9 58.4 61.0 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 4 6 8 11 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 42 38 33 26 23 26 32 44 54 60 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -10. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 23. 26. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 45.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/10/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.5% 13.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 27.0% 19.2% 6.8% 2.8% 11.4% 9.6% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.1% 16.8% 11.2% 5.3% 0.9% 3.8% 7.6% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/10/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/10/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 30 33 38 41 43 48 51 56 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 31 36 39 41 46 49 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 28 33 36 38 43 46 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 21 26 29 31 36 39 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT