* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/10/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 28 32 35 41 44 45 48 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 28 32 35 41 44 45 48 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 9 12 6 8 6 10 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 2 1 7 6 6 6 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 266 289 303 321 323 325 320 295 269 283 263 227 197 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 139 140 141 143 146 152 158 167 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 134 132 131 132 134 141 149 158 167 169 169 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 55 54 51 54 57 57 55 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 18 2 0 -14 -17 -21 -31 -31 -19 -2 35 200 MB DIV 29 24 0 -3 -3 -10 -52 -14 -4 -14 -6 16 31 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1334 1257 1194 1145 1107 1046 993 917 862 783 565 377 344 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.9 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.5 46.3 47.1 47.6 48.4 49.1 50.3 52.0 54.3 56.8 59.6 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 7 10 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 38 44 42 34 27 23 27 33 47 51 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 23. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 44.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/10/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 20.2% 14.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 17.7% 11.1% 3.9% 1.3% 5.8% 6.4% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 14.2% 8.7% 4.5% 0.4% 2.0% 6.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/10/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/10/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 28 32 35 41 44 45 48 51 54 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 27 31 34 40 43 44 47 50 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 27 30 36 39 40 43 46 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 22 28 31 32 35 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT