* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/09/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 4 5 8 10 14 6 8 10 12 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 6 6 5 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 325 359 347 320 322 326 330 318 288 272 275 261 287 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 137 138 138 139 141 146 152 154 165 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 131 132 131 130 130 134 143 152 154 165 168 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 59 56 54 50 53 57 56 56 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 24 19 4 -10 -31 -24 -22 -22 -26 -1 1 200 MB DIV 15 15 24 15 -13 -1 -30 -27 -24 0 4 -2 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1419 1326 1264 1193 1145 1069 1017 952 860 765 702 480 221 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.7 44.5 45.3 46.0 47.0 47.7 48.5 49.8 51.7 54.2 56.9 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 5 8 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 26 29 31 30 25 21 27 31 47 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 42.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 17.5% 12.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 22.5% 11.6% 3.4% 1.6% 9.4% 20.3% 34.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 10.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 2.9% 16.9% 8.4% 3.9% 0.6% 3.3% 11.1% 11.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/09/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 58 61 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 40 47 51 54 56 59 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 42 46 49 51 54 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 34 38 41 43 46 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT