* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/09/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 54 56 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 54 56 60 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 41 42 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 5 5 11 12 16 11 11 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 5 4 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 313 315 349 344 325 331 324 330 302 303 280 270 255 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 142 146 146 147 147 147 150 153 158 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 138 143 142 140 139 138 145 150 158 169 169 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 59 58 54 52 50 56 54 57 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 28 28 19 -2 -9 -28 -18 -18 -21 0 11 200 MB DIV 23 21 19 27 18 -3 -12 -29 -33 -18 -10 12 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1510 1394 1310 1232 1162 1056 991 958 882 807 749 533 313 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 43.2 44.2 45.1 46.0 47.5 48.5 49.2 50.2 51.7 53.9 56.5 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 9 8 6 4 3 7 9 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 27 32 35 39 33 29 24 29 33 46 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 25. 29. 31. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 41.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 17.7% 12.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 13.5% 6.0% 1.6% 0.6% 6.5% 12.5% 18.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 13.7% 6.7% 3.2% 0.2% 2.5% 8.8% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/09/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 54 56 60 62 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 41 48 52 54 58 60 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 44 48 50 54 56 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 36 40 42 46 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT