* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/09/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 46 51 56 59 63 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 46 51 56 59 63 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 45 47 50 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 8 4 6 4 12 8 9 6 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 1 3 4 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 349 318 325 348 332 345 291 300 300 306 283 270 227 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 139 143 148 147 145 148 149 152 158 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 134 138 142 139 135 141 145 152 158 166 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 62 63 56 53 50 55 56 60 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 39 34 33 16 2 -24 -19 -16 -14 -9 34 200 MB DIV 30 39 45 52 55 -6 -9 -18 -35 -25 -7 0 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1640 1524 1419 1339 1268 1148 1080 1035 990 903 816 744 559 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.5 42.6 43.5 44.3 45.7 46.7 47.4 48.0 49.3 51.2 53.7 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 8 6 4 2 5 8 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 21 23 28 33 35 35 32 25 25 33 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 40.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 20.3% 14.3% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 22.7% 10.5% 3.6% 1.6% 12.7% 21.6% 28.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.9% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% Consensus: 2.7% 17.0% 8.9% 4.4% 0.5% 4.4% 12.4% 9.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/09/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/09/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 40 46 51 56 59 63 68 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 38 44 49 54 57 61 66 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 39 44 49 52 56 61 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 30 35 40 43 47 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT