* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/08/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 59 62 64 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 59 62 64 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 43 47 49 51 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 6 4 5 6 10 12 11 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 2 -1 0 5 5 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 18 308 258 297 336 336 327 299 324 292 296 275 277 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 137 142 150 148 148 149 148 153 156 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 134 134 139 147 143 141 140 142 150 156 167 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 60 61 58 52 53 51 53 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 38 40 37 29 3 0 -21 -22 -12 -9 2 200 MB DIV 25 35 57 54 60 24 -11 0 -19 -25 -10 -8 11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1750 1632 1512 1401 1299 1128 1019 957 924 862 801 765 562 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.7 13.3 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 40.7 42.0 43.1 44.1 46.0 47.5 48.6 49.5 50.4 51.9 53.9 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 6 5 4 6 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 19 21 26 34 34 29 26 24 30 32 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 39.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 19.8% 14.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 25.3% 13.2% 6.8% 2.9% 20.5% 27.2% 31.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% Consensus: 2.7% 16.8% 9.5% 5.4% 1.0% 7.1% 14.2% 10.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/08/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 59 62 64 67 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 45 51 56 59 61 64 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 40 46 51 54 56 59 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 31 37 42 45 47 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT