* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/08/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 60 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 60 64 66 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 44 48 51 53 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 2 3 5 5 6 8 13 9 15 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 2 0 -1 1 6 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 338 341 311 259 280 324 319 289 317 307 305 288 285 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 136 137 147 148 148 147 149 151 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 134 134 135 145 144 142 140 142 146 156 159 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 57 58 58 52 54 50 52 53 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 41 39 46 37 18 11 -13 -19 -23 -14 -9 200 MB DIV 13 19 30 47 56 40 -5 -22 -1 -26 -16 -20 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1888 1765 1648 1526 1408 1221 1060 992 929 892 814 761 625 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 39.3 40.6 41.8 43.0 45.0 47.0 48.3 49.4 50.2 51.5 53.2 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 19 19 21 31 35 32 26 25 27 34 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 31. 35. 39. 41. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 37.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 18.4% 13.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 21.0% 10.7% 5.3% 2.2% 19.2% 27.0% 40.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 10.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% Consensus: 2.7% 16.7% 8.5% 4.7% 0.8% 6.9% 14.2% 13.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/08/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 60 64 66 68 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 54 58 62 64 66 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 49 53 57 59 61 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 40 44 48 50 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT