* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/08/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 54 59 62 66 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 54 59 62 66 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 42 45 48 51 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 2 4 7 4 6 6 4 8 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 89 39 21 317 261 260 279 274 255 234 216 216 183 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 138 137 136 140 138 138 142 148 153 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 134 135 133 132 133 128 127 132 141 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 60 61 57 52 52 53 58 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 45 50 54 46 37 30 15 -8 -7 -1 19 200 MB DIV 8 12 17 33 36 67 35 -3 23 -10 -32 -26 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 -2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1784 1935 1975 1874 1768 1562 1418 1339 1295 1249 1182 1062 897 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.7 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.2 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.1 35.5 36.7 37.8 38.9 40.9 42.5 43.5 43.9 44.2 44.8 46.2 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 9 7 3 2 2 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 15 22 21 17 23 25 26 28 31 32 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 29. 34. 37. 41. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 34.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 18.1% 12.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 11.8% 5.6% 1.0% 0.3% 5.4% 12.2% 27.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 2.1% 12.6% 6.9% 3.2% 0.1% 2.1% 8.9% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/08/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 54 59 62 66 69 71 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 43 52 57 60 64 67 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 38 47 52 55 59 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 39 44 47 51 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT