* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 52 56 57 60 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 52 56 57 60 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 41 44 46 47 48 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 3 2 4 6 7 8 8 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 107 93 52 24 317 270 248 261 242 236 207 239 222 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 134 138 136 135 135 135 136 140 142 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 128 130 134 131 128 125 123 125 131 138 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 62 61 60 55 58 58 62 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 52 53 52 54 50 45 35 18 5 13 26 200 MB DIV 7 20 25 22 30 19 53 -6 10 17 1 -25 17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1613 1731 1860 1978 1936 1746 1594 1508 1477 1454 1415 1315 1176 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.6 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.9 40.4 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.2 43.6 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 3 1 1 4 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 12 17 20 17 20 21 22 23 25 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 32. 35. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 32.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 21.1% 15.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 17.8% 10.2% 3.4% 1.2% 10.3% 11.0% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.4% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 3.0% 15.4% 9.7% 4.7% 0.4% 3.9% 8.7% 8.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/08/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 52 56 57 60 60 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 45 50 54 55 58 58 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 40 45 49 50 53 53 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 36 40 41 44 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT