* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 51 56 56 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 51 56 56 59 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 49 50 50 49 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 2 2 7 8 9 10 11 10 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 95 97 99 48 329 259 241 249 239 218 216 216 228 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 132 133 138 135 134 132 132 134 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 128 127 129 132 129 125 121 120 124 131 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 62 63 62 59 57 59 61 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 48 50 48 55 61 56 42 39 29 13 33 200 MB DIV 2 7 14 10 8 20 27 40 20 75 55 2 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1473 1570 1677 1796 1915 1896 1731 1626 1586 1562 1539 1470 1378 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.1 33.1 34.2 35.3 37.3 39.0 40.1 40.7 40.8 41.0 41.9 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 9 7 4 1 1 2 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 12 11 19 19 17 16 17 18 22 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 31. 31. 34. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 31.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 21.7% 15.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.2% 7.3% 1.8% 0.6% 11.0% 13.8% 26.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.7% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 1.1% 1.5% Consensus: 3.2% 15.5% 9.0% 4.3% 0.2% 4.6% 9.9% 9.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/07/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 51 56 56 59 60 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 37 43 48 53 53 56 57 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 32 38 43 48 48 51 52 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 33 38 38 41 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT